270 
ACUS01 KWNS 031242
SWODY1
SPC AC 031240

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 AM CDT FRI SEP 03 2010

VALID 031300Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO UPPER OH VALLEY...

INTENSE UPPER LOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PROGRESS ENEWD THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH AN EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND ATTENDANT 70-80 KT
MIDLEVEL JET STREAK PROPAGATING THROUGH BASAL PORTION OF LARGE-SCALE
TROUGH ACROSS THE OH VALLEY.  AT THE SURFACE...AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL CONCURRENTLY MOVE EWD THROUGH MID/UPPER OH VALLEY AND
LOWER GREAT LAKES...LIKELY SERVING AS THE FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  

PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY IS RELATIVELY WARM
THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES OF 70-75 F AND DEW POINTS IN THE
LOWER 60S F.  WHILE EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF
LOW CLOUDS IMMEDIATELY PRECEDING THE FRONT OVER WRN OH...DOWNSTREAM
AREAS OF CNTRL/ERN OH INTO WRN PARTS OF NY/PA AND WV ARE LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING ALONG THE WRN FRINGE OF TC EARL
CLOUD CANOPY.  AS SUCH...EXPECT POCKETS OF MODEST WARM SECTOR
DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR WHERE SBCAPE WILL APPROACH 500 J/KG WITH
STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  THE MAJORITY OF DIURNAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SEVERE. 
HOWEVER...GIVEN A STRENGTHENING...DEEP WLY WIND FIELD AND RESULTING
STORM MOTIONS OF 30-40 KT...SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS WILL EXIST WITH ANY MORE ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS.  

...TN/LOWER MS VALLEYS INTO TX...

SWWD EXTENSION OF COLD FRONT AND RESIDUAL PRE-FRONTAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WILL SERVE AS FOCI FOR DIURNALLY-ENHANCED STORM
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR AIR MASS.  WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR STORM ORGANIZATION AND AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

..MEAD/GRAMS.. 09/03/2010