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United States Severe Weather Center
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Overview
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Friday, March 12 1:44 PM UTC
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Day 1 Outlook
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Day 2 Outlook
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Day 3 Outlook
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Day 4 Outlook
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Day 5 Outlook
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Day 6 Outlook
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Day 7 Outlook
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150
ACUS02 KWNS 120604
SWODY2
SPC AC 120604
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1204 AM CST FRI MAR 12 2010
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AS THE UPSTREAM PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ...MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A SPLITTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL DIG INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BY 12Z SATURDAY.
THE SYSTEM IS THEN PROGGED TO EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW AS IT
CONTINUES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU BY 12Z SUNDAY.
AT THE SAME TIME...A LARGE CLOSED LOW ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE
EASTERN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD...MOSTLY IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPMENTS OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE CYCLONIC FLOW. ONE OF THESE PERTURBATIONS APPEARS LIKELY TO BE
IN THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING AND PIVOTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD... WHILE THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL COLD CORE TURN EAST OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUGGESTS THAT THIS
LATTER FEATURE WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF STATES INTO THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
...SRN APPALACHIANS INTO SRN/MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE OCCLUDING SURFACE CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST BY MODELS TO BE WELL OFFSHORE BY 12Z
SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION SUPPORTIVE OF
STORMS CAPABLE OF REACHING SEVERE CRITERIA SEEMS NEGLIGIBLE AT THE
PRESENT TIME. HOWEVER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS
POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE PERIOD ALONG THE OCCLUDED FRONT AS IT
PROGRESSES ACROSS MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. THEREAFTER...RESIDUAL
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN
VIRGINIA...COUPLED WITH COOLING ALOFT...COULD CONTRIBUTE TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING.
MEANWHILE...DESPITE LOWER MOISTURE LEVELS... STRONGER DAYTIME
SURFACE HEATING TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD CORE
OVERSPREADS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
...GREAT BASIN IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...
STRONG LIFT AND MID-LEVEL COOLING /-26-30C 500 MB COLD CORE/ APPEAR
LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DIGGING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. WHILE COOL AND RELATIVELY DRY LOWER
LEVELS PROBABLY WILL LIMIT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL...DESTABILIZATION
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY....PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN UTAH AND NORTHERN
ARIZONA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
..KERR.. 03/12/2010
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