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United States Severe Weather Center
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Overview
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Saturday, March 13 11:03 PM UTC
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Day 1 Outlook
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Day 2 Outlook
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Day 3 Outlook
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Day 4 Outlook
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Day 5 Outlook
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Day 6 Outlook
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Day 7 Outlook
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Any Severe
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585
ACUS03 KWNS 130804
SWODY3
SPC AC 130803
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0203 AM CST SAT MAR 13 2010
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND
CANADA WILL AMPLIFY FURTHER DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AS THIS
OCCURS...FLOW APPEARS LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN A BIT AND TAKE ON AN
INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY/NORTH NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT IN ONE BELT
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...AND ANOTHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. PLAINS.
DOWNSTREAM CLOSED LOWS ARE PROGGED TO WEAKEN...WITH THE MORE
PROMINENT CIRCULATION NEAR THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ACCELERATING AWAY
FROM THE COAST. THE SMALLER LOW...PROGGED NEAR EL PASO AT 12Z
MONDAY...MAY CONTINUE TO DIG THROUGH AREAS NEAR OR WEST OF THE BIG
BEND REGION...BEFORE TURNING EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.
SURFACE RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE SIGNIFICANT COOLING/DRYING
BEGINS TO SURGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/
NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. BEFORE THIS
OCCURS...FORCING/DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND A
WEAK MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO A RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHWEST TEXAS...PARTS OF THE PECOS VALLEY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU.
HOWEVER...AT THE PRESENT TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST
DESTABILIZATION AND MOST VIGOROUS STORMS WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NATION IS EXPECTED TO BE
NEGLIGIBLE.
..KERR.. 03/13/2010
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