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United States Severe Weather Center
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Overview
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Friday, September 3 12:57 PM UTC
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Any Severe
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041
ACUS03 KWNS 030731
SWODY3
SPC AC 030730
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT FRI SEP 03 2010
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE/SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED LARGE SCALE FLOW REGIME WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF NOTE WITH RESPECT TO
DEEP CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE AN AMPLIFYING WESTERN STATES
TROUGH...IN WHICH A REASONABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS
WILL CROSS THE GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL
ROCKIES SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
...NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH...APPRECIABLE
LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
ON SUNDAY. IN AN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE KINEMATIC/DYNAMIC SCENARIO...IT
IS LIKELY THAT MEAGER MOISTURE RETURN/QUALITY IN THE WAKE OF THE
RECENT COLD FRONT WILL CONSIDERABLY LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS
THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. A STOUT EASTWARD
ADVECTING ELEVATED MIXED PLUME WILL SERVE TO CAP MUCH IF NOT ALL OF
THE WARM SECTOR/TRIPLE POINT VICINITY THROUGH PEAK HEATING. TSTMS
SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN/ROCKIES FRONT RANGE
AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS ALONG/IN THE WAKE OF A GENERALLY
SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT AMID DEVELOPING UPSLOPE
TRAJECTORIES/ASSOCIATED MOISTENING. CANNOT CURRENTLY RULE OUT A FEW
TSTMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS WY/SOUTHEAST
MT INTO WESTERN SD VICINITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. BUT
GIVEN FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES/AFOREMENTIONED LIMITATIONS...WILL NOT
INTRODUCE LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME GIVEN WHAT CURRENTLY
APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL SCENARIO. TSTMS COULD PROPAGATE
EASTWARD/POTENTIALLY INCREASE NORTH OF A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY AMID AN ELEVATED MOISTURE RETURN
REGIME...BUT AGAIN CAPPING/INITIALLY LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD
PRECLUDE APPRECIABLE SEVERE CONCERNS.
..GUYER.. 09/03/2010
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