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United States Severe Weather Center
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Overview
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Tuesday, March 16 5:23 PM UTC
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Day 1 Outlook
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Day 2 Outlook
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Day 3 Outlook
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Day 4 Outlook
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Day 5 Outlook
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Day 6 Outlook
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Day 7 Outlook
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496
ACUS48 KWNS 160835
SWOD48
SPC AC 160835
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0335 AM CDT TUE MAR 16 2010
VALID 191200Z - 241200Z
...POTENTIAL TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A SEVERE THREAT AREA...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A RELATIVELY HIGH
LIKELIHOOD THAT A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG OUT OF THE GREAT
BASIN THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
TURNING EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...TOWARD THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD...DURING THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE FURTHER SUGGESTS
THAT IT IS WITHIN THE RANGE OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS THAT THIS MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS...AND LARGE SCALE FORCING
THAT MIGHT MORE TYPICALLY BE SUPPORTIVE OF A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK. HOWEVER... CLOSE ON THE HEELS OF RECENT AND ONGOING
DRYING/STABILIZING PERTURBATIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO/SOUTHEAST AND ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC...SUBSTANTIVE GULF
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING AND INLAND RETURN FLOW APPEARS UNLIKELY TO
OCCUR IN TIME. SO...WHILE THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY NOT BE
NEGLIGIBLE...PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN
GULF COAST/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...IT PROBABLY WILL BE TEMPERED
CONSIDERABLY. THEREAFTER...INCREASING SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS AND
MODEL ENSEMBLES FURTHER COMPLICATES THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
..KERR.. 03/16/2010
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