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United States Severe Weather Center
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Overview
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Friday, September 3 1:22 PM UTC
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Day 1 Outlook
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Day 2 Outlook
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Day 3 Outlook
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Day 4 Outlook
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Day 5 Outlook
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Day 6 Outlook
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Day 7 Outlook
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567
ACUS48 KWNS 030858
SWOD48
SPC AC 030857
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 AM CDT FRI SEP 03 2010
VALID 061200Z - 111200Z
...DISCUSSION...
WITH RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG 00Z ECMWF/GEFS GUIDANCE...IT IS
LIKELY THAT A RELATIVELY MORE ACTIVE/SEVERE-CONDUCIVE PATTERN WILL
UNFOLD ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES DURING THE EARLY/MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. INITIALLY...DAY 4/MONDAY WILL BE A CONCERN ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MO VALLEY/ADJACENT MIDWEST. SIMILAR TO
DAY 3/SUNDAY...INITIALLY MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...AND THE
STRENGTH OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ASSOCIATED CAPPING...PROVIDES SOME
MEASURE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXTENSIVENESS/MAGNITUDE OF THE
SEVERE RISK. HOWEVER...THE POSSIBILITY OF AMPLE LARGE SCALE FORCING
ACCOMPANIED BY ROBUST WIND PROFILES/STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT WOULD
SUPPORT A MULTI-MODAL SEVERE CONCERN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WITH A
CURRENT FOCUS ON EASTERN NEB AND PERHAPS EASTERN PORTIONS OF SD/KS
INTO IA AND SOUTHERN MN/FAR NORTHERN MO.
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO DAY 6/WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY DAY
7/THURSDAY...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A GUIDANCE CONSENSUS EASTWARD
ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES. BASED ON THIS
GUIDANCE...AND THE ANTICIPATED AVAILABILITY OF A BROADER/HIGHER
QUALITY MOIST SECTOR GIVEN A STALLING/RETREATING CENTRAL STATES
FRONTAL ZONE ON DAYS 5/6....A MORE APPRECIABLE SEVERE RISK MAY EXIST
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS ON DAY 7/THURSDAY...PERHAPS PRECEDED
BY SOME HIGH PLAINS SEVERE RISK DAY 6/WEDNESDAY. THIS SCENARIO WILL
BE MONITORED IN SUBSEQUENT DAYS FOR INTRODUCTION OF A SEVERE RISK
AREA /30% CALIBER SEVERE PROBABILITIES/.
..GUYER.. 09/03/2010
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