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United States Severe Weather Center
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Overview
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Tuesday, March 16 6:51 AM UTC
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Day 1 Outlook
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Day 2 Outlook
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Day 3 Outlook
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Day 4 Outlook
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Day 5 Outlook
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Day 6 Outlook
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Day 7 Outlook
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392
ACUS48 KWNS 150852
SWOD48
SPC AC 150852
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 AM CDT MON MAR 15 2010
VALID 181200Z - 231200Z
...POTENTIAL TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A SEVERE THREAT AREA...
THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH THE COMING WEEK STILL
APPEARS UNLIKELY TO ALLOW GULF OF MEXICO BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION
SUPPORTIVE OF A SUBSTANTIVE INLAND RETURN FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THAT SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER FLOW NEAR THE
PACIFIC COAST LATE THIS WEEK COULD YIELD A STRONG/INTENSIFYING SHORT
WAVE IMPULSE THAT DIGS THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...BEFORE
SWEEPING EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. NEXT WEEKEND.
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD DOES EXIST AMONG THE MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES
CONCERNING THIS FEATURE. BUT IT IS WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBLE
SOLUTIONS THAT STRONG LIFT AND DIFFERENTIAL THERMAL ADVECTION...IN
THE PRESENCE OF AT LEAST WEAK MOISTENING AND STRENGTHENING DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...COULD OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SO ...THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY NOT
BE COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE.
..KERR.. 03/15/2010
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