926 
FNUS21 KWNS 030823
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0322 AM CDT FRI SEP 03 2010

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST...WHILE AN UPSTREAM RIDGE SHIFTS FROM THE PACIFIC NW
TO THE NRN ROCKIES. AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL REACH THE
SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST BY EARLY SAT.

...N-CNTRL/NERN ORE...SERN WA...
WEAK MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS MODEST HEIGHT FALLS AND DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW OVERSPREAD THE REGION DOWNSTREAM OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA. LATEST MODEL FORECASTS DIFFER WITH
THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION WITH THE NAM AND ITS COMPANION HI-RES
WRF-NMM MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN OTHER DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE EXPECTATION OF RELATIVELY WEAK
FORCING/MOISTENING...OVERALL TSTM PROBABILITIES SHOULD REMAIN LOW
/AROUND 10 PERCENT/. HOWEVER...SHOULD ANY TSTMS DEVELOP THEY OUGHT
TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH THE PRESENCE OF DEEP INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES AND FAST STORM MOTIONS. NEVERTHELESS...FUEL DRYNESS LEVELS
IN THE MOIST CATEGORY /PER LATEST NWCC OUTLOOK/ WITH RECENT
ABOVE-NORMAL RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL MITIGATE THE
THREAT.

...PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS INTO S-CNTRL VA...
A CORRIDOR OF RELATIVELY LOWER PW VALUES WAS SAMPLED IN 06Z
PIT/RNK/FFC RAOBS...BETWEEN AREAS OF RICHER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
TC EARL AND A WRN GREAT LAKES UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS DRY AIR
CORRIDOR WILL SHIFT EWD AND BE CENTERED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S
SHOULD LEAD TO LOW RH VALUES /FROM 18 TO 25 PERCENT/. HOWEVER...WLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE /AROUND 8 TO 15 MPH/ AND LIMIT A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL THREAT.

..GRAMS.. 09/03/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...