182 
ACUS11 KWNS 250745
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250745 
NDZ000-SDZ000-250915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1118
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0245 AM CDT FRI JUN 25 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN NORTH DAKOTA AND NW/N CNTRL
SOUTH DAKOTA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 250745Z - 250915Z

THE SEVERE THREAT MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE...BUT THE NEED
FOR A NEW WW IN THE NEAR TERM IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.  

SCATTERED STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST WITHIN
BROADER SCALE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS.  FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH ONE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE NOW
PROGRESSING INTO INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW NEAR THE NORTH
DAKOTA/MANITOBA BORDER...AND ANOTHER IMPULSE MIGRATING EAST OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE...IS CONTRIBUTING TO THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH MAY NOT COMPLETELY
DIMINISH.  

SOUTH OF A SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ADVANCING CONVECTIVELY GENERATED SURFACE
COLD POOL...THE LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINS RELATIVELY WARM/MOIST AND
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...INCLUDING THE
BISMARCK AND JAMESTOWN AREAS.  ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS A BIT COOLER...BUT A SLIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT TO
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO A BIT STRONGER
SHEAR BENEATH 30-40+ KT WESTERLY 500 MB FLOW. 
ADDITIONALLY...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN QUITE STEEP ACROSS MUCH
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR
AT LEAST LOCALIZED STRONG SURFACE GUSTS IN ADDITIONAL TO HAIL.  

SO THE RISK FOR ADDITIONAL STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS PROBABLY
EXISTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.  HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR
SUBSTANTIAL FURTHER INTENSIFICATION...OR UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN
EVOLVING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM APPEARS LOW THROUGH AT LEAST DAYBREAK.

..KERR.. 06/25/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON   44960350 45390348 45630316 46010213 46520223 46880282
            47450288 47800184 47660013 47339890 47029824 46459810
            45819921 46180081 46060135 45720133 45450053 44850076
            44730203 44960350