856 
ACUS01 KWNS 110133
SWODY1
SPC AC 110131

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0731 PM CST WED MAR 10 2010

VALID 110100Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN TX THROUGH THE LOWER
AND MID MS VALLEY...TN VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE GULF COASTAL
STATES...

CORRECTED FOR SLIGHT RISK LINE

...NERN TX AND NWRN LA THROUGH THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY AREA...

DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM SURFACE LOW NEAR THE NERN OK/SERN KS BORDER SWD
THROUGH ERN OK AND ERN TX. A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE LOW SWWD
THROUGH CNTRL AND SWRN OK INTO WRN TX. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS NEWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH CNTRL MO AND WRN IL. SURFACE LOW
WILL DEVELOP NNEWD THROUGH ERN KS AND WRN MO TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH NEWD EJECTING VORT MAX CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER OK. AS THIS
OCCURS THE PACIFIC FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE DRYLINE AND CONTINUE
EWD INTO THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY LATER TONIGHT.

AXIS OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR HAS ADVECTED NWD THROUGH WARM
SECTOR WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE LOW 60S ACROSS LA TO 50S IN
AR AND 40S IN MO. EVENING RAOB DATA INDICATES A STRONG ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER /8+ C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ HAS ADVECTED ABOVE THE
MOIST AXIS RESULTING IN A RESERVOIR OF 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE FROM
NERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT
DEVELOPED ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE CONTINUE FROM NERN TX INTO
AR. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR VERY
LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES WHERE STRONG BULK SHEAR IS
CO-LOCATED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY. THE 00Z
RAOB AND RECENT VWP DATA INDICATE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY LARGE...BUT WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENS.

SOME STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO LINES OR CLUSTERS WITH
AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND...PARTICULARLY FROM NRN AR
INTO MO WHERE DEEP LAYER FORCING IS STRONGER...BUT POTENTIAL FOR
EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL REMAIN GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
VERTICAL SHEAR.


...GULF COASTAL STATES...

EARLY THIS EVENING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN GA INTO
SRN AL AND THEN NWWD THROUGH CNTRL MS. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
INDICATES A RESERVOIR OF MODERATE MLCAPE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY WITH EWD EXTENT TOWARD GA WHERE
LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS STEEP. FORCING WITHIN THIS REGION IS
DOMINATED PRIMARILY BY LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT...AND STORMS
DEVELOPING WITHIN THIS REGIME WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. CLUSTERS OF STORMS WITH EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE E-W BOUNDARY. STORMS MOVING NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL QUICKLY BECOME ELEVATED BUT WILL STILL POSE A THREAT
FOR LARGE HAIL.

..DIAL.. 03/11/2010