333 
ACUS01 KWNS 031615
SWODY1
SPC AC 031614

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1114 AM CDT FRI SEP 03 2010

VALID 031630Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A PRONOUNCED MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
PROGRESS EWD OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH
TONIGHT.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS AND SWD TO NEAR THE GULF COAST BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...HURRICANE EARL WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NNEWD
AND THE WRN PORTION OF THE WEAKENING STORM CORE WILL SKIRT THE SE
NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON FROM SE TX NEWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS. 
REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS REVEALED RATHER POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IN
THE NARROW MOIST WARM SECTOR...WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE UPPER OH AND TN VALLEYS...AND MORE
SUBSTANTIAL CAPE ACROSS TX IN THE PLUME OF 2.25-2.50 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER.  GIVEN ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY AND RATHER MODEST
LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW/SHEAR IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY...THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO
WARRANT MAINTAINING EVEN 5% WIND PROBABILITIES.  FARTHER
N...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN MAINE
ALONG A SLOW-MOVING WARM FRONT.  VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE AT LEAST
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...THOUGH RATHER WARM PROFILES
ALOFT AND RESULTANT MODEST INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH ONLY MODEST
LOW-LEVEL FLOW...SUGGEST THAT ANY PARTICULAR TYPE OF SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIMITED.

OTHERWISE...A FEW DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS S FL...AND POTENTIALLY ALONG THE NRN
FRINGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME INTO SE AZ/SW NM.  ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM INTERIOR ORE NEWD ACROSS
THE NRN ROCKIES WITHIN A WEAK MIDLEVEL MOISTURE PLUME AND IN ADVANCE
OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING WA.

..THOMPSON/PETERS.. 09/03/2010