270 
ACUS01 KWNS 040056
SWODY1
SPC AC 040053

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0653 PM CST WED DEC 03 2008

VALID 040100Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...ERN TX THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

EARLY THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA
SWWD THROUGH ERN AND SWRN TX. NARROW AXIS OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF
AIR HAS ADVECTED NWD THROUGH PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR ACROSS ERN TX
THROUGH LA AND AR. SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S OVER SE
TX AND SW LA TO MID-UPPER 50S FARTHER NORTH. EARLY EVENING RAOB DATA
SHOW NOSE OF WARMER AIR NEAR 700 MB EXTENDING INTO PARTS OF ERN TX
AND SW LA. THIS HAS LIMITED THE DEPTH OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN
THE MORE UNSTABLE PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR SO FAR. THE MID LEVEL
INVERSION IS WEAKER FARTHER NORTH FROM NE TX INTO NW LA AND AR WHERE
DEEPER CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED.

WV IMAGERY SHOWS A VIGOROUS VORTICITY MAXIMUM DROPPING ESE THROUGH
CNTRL TX...BUT STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
LIKELY REMAIN POST FRONTAL. THE MID LEVEL THERMAL INVERSION AND 
TENDENCY FOR STRONGER Q-G FORCING TO REMAIN IN COOL SECTOR SUGGEST
MOST STORMS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN CONFINED TO ZONE OF LINEAR FORCING
ALONG THE SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL BECOME MORE
LIMITED AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES TONIGHT...AND TENDENCY WILL
BE FOR STORMS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST OF
THE INSTABILITY/MOIST AXIS. IN THE MEANTIME...STORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MAINLY ISOLATED HAIL
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WITH LARGE LOW
LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG DEEP SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A MORE ROBUST
SEVERE THREAT IF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WERE SOMEWHAT
GREATER. GIVEN THE LIMITATIONS AND CONDITIONAL NATURE OF THE SEVERE
THREAT IMPOSED BY THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...WILL
MAINTAIN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

..DIAL.. 12/04/2008