781 
ACUS01 KWNS 141627
SWODY1
SPC AC 141626

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CDT SUN MAR 14 2010

VALID 141630Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY OFFSHORE THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE AN UPSTREAM CLOSED LOW
MOVES SLOWLY SEWD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS TO SRN NM.  A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON OVER ERN PA/NJ/SE
NY/CT IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN EMBEDDED VORTICITY CENTER PIVOTING NWWD
AROUND THE CLOSED LOW.  THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL DECREASE
GRADUALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING IN
PROXIMITY TO THE PRIMARY LOW CENTER.

...SE NM/W TX THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...
A RELATIVELY DRY LOW-MID TROPOSPHERE WILL LIMIT THE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL TODAY TO A NARROW ZONE EXPERIENCING THE STRONGEST/ DEEPEST
ASCENT...IMMEDIATELY E/NE OF THE FOUR CORNERS LOW.  THERE WILL BE
SOME INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS W CENTRAL TX BY THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH A 20-30 KT SELY LLJ.  THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF DEEP CONVECTION
AS LOW-LEVEL DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE 38-44 F RANGE BENEATH STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY LOW-LEVEL WAA IN TANDEM WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE MID-UPPER JET.  THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL OVERNIGHT...BUT COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SUGGEST
AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR HAIL NEAR 1 INCH IN DIAMETER.

..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 03/14/2010