441 
ACUS01 KWNS 071245
SWODY1
SPC AC 071242

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0642 AM CST WED JAN 07 2009

VALID 071300Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...
A FULL LATITUDE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD FROM THE MS
VALLEY THIS MORNING TO THE APPALACHIANS BY THIS EVENING.  AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE INVOF LAKE ERIE WILL DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN ADVANCE OF THIS
MID LEVEL TROUGH...WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS EWD ACROSS THE
SE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY.

CONVECTION HAS BEEN FOCUSED ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT IS NOW
LOCATED FROM THE FL BIG BEND NEWD ACROSS SE GA AND CENTRAL SC/NC. 
LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION AND SHORT TERM MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT THE
CONVECTIVE BAND WILL MOVE OFF THE GA/SC COASTS BY 15Z...THE NC OUTER
BANKS BY 17-19Z...AND OFF THE SE FL COAST AROUND 00Z.  DESPITE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S F ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND
MID 60S ACROSS FL...INSTABILITY AND LIGHTNING PRODUCTION ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE LIMITED AS A RESULT OF POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND SYSTEM MOTION AWAY FROM THE RICHEST MOISTURE FEED FROM THE
ERN GULF OF MEXICO.

AS THE 130-140 KT MID LEVEL JET DEVELOPS NEWD FROM AL/GA TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION LATER TODAY...THE STRONGER LLJ CORE WILL
LIKEWISE SHIFT NEWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MIDDAY...LEAVING 
WEAKER LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR DURING THE DAY ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. 
DESPITE THE WEAK INSTABILITY...THE STRONG AMBIENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW
COULD BE TRANSPORTED TO THE GROUND IN THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
CORES ALONG THE NARROW FORCED LINE...WITH A MARGINAL THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS.

..THOMPSON.. 01/07/2009