020 
ACUS01 KWNS 031954
SWODY1
SPC AC 031951

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0151 PM CST WED DEC 03 2008

VALID 032000Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

....ARKLATEX INTO UPR TX/SWRN LA CST...
19Z CDFNT FROM SE MO-NW AR-SE OK-TX HILL COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE QUICKLY SEWD TOWARD THE LWR MS VLY TONIGHT.  AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MODIFIED GULFMEX MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NWD...MARKED
BY THE INCREASE IN SHALLOW STREAMER SHOWERS OVER THE UPR TX CST. 
AFTN CONVECTION SHOULD BE CAPPED BY A WARM NOSE JUST ABOVE H85.

POS-TILT UPR IMPULSE DIGGING SEWD OVER THE TX HIPLNS WILL TRANSLATE
TO E TX BY MID-EVENING...WITH STRONG UVV ACCOMPANYING THE CDFNT AS
IT MOVES THROUGH THE ARKLATEX AND UPR TX CSTL REGION.  RAPIDLY
COOLING CONDITIONS ALOFT AND THE ENHANCED MESOSCALE ASCENT SHOULD
INITIATE DEEPER CONVECTION/TSTMS AFT 22-23Z FROM SW AR/NW LA INTO E
TX /MUCAPES 500-750 J PER KG/.  UPDRAFTS WILL LIKELY BECOME QUICKLY
UNDERCUT BY THE SURGING CDFNT WITH LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR
PRE-FRONTAL SFC-BASED STORMS.  EFFECTIVE SHEAR AOA 45 KTS AND
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD LRG HAIL. 
STORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THE FRONTAL INTERFACE MAY GIVE A LOCAL DMGG
WIND GUST AS WELL.

ISOLD SVR THREATS SHOULD WANE OVERNIGHT AS THE EVOLVING LINE OF
STORMS BEGINS TO OUTRUN THE STRONGER INSTABILITY AXIS.

..RACY.. 12/03/2008