581 
ACUS01 KWNS 070517
SWODY1
SPC AC 070514

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1114 PM CST TUE JAN 06 2009

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER THE ERN CONUS
TODAY IN RESPONSE TO NNEWD PROPAGATION OF 100-130 KT MIDLEVEL JET
THROUGH ERN PERIPHERY OF TROUGH.  AT 12Z TODAY...SURFACE LOW LOCATED
OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY/LAKE ERIE REGION WILL EVENTUALLY OCCLUDE AS
THIS FEATURE TRACKS NEWD THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.  A COLD
FRONT TRAILING SWD IS EXPECTED TO SURGE EWD FROM THE WRN CAROLINAS
AND ERN GULF COAST STATES...MOVING OFF MUCH OF THE MIDDLE AND SRN
ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  THE SRN EXTENT WILL
THEN PROCEED SEWD THROUGH SRN FL WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OFFSHORE BY
08/06Z.

...SRN VA/CAROLINAS SWD TO FL...
DESPITE MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR...FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN A WARM LAYER AT MID LEVELS
RESULTING IN WEAK LAPSE RATES AND A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR PARCELS TO
REACH EQUILIBRIUM TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR CHARGE SEPARATION. 
WHILE CONVERGENCE WILL TEND TO DIMINISH ALONG SURFACE FRONT DURING
THE DAY...THE LEADING EDGE OF SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SEGMENTED BANDS OF MOIST
CONVECTION /SOME OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE LIGHTNING/.  AMBIENT WIND
FIELDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG AND ANY MORE ORGANIZED/STRONGER 
STORM-SCALE DOWNDRAFTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

ANY ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD END OVER THE CAROLINAS BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.  FARTHER
S...STORMS SHOULD ALSO TEND TO WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SRN FL PENINSULA AS THE AIR MASS SLOWLY STABILIZES.

..PETERS.. 01/07/2009